Coronavirus: The Risk of Death
Experts of the sudden scary COVID-19 virus tell us that from 1000 cases of infection 5 to 40 ones can be fatal. The most loyal prognosis is about 1% of deaths, and this is 9 cases out of a thousand infected.
The number of new outbreaks of the disease is growing exponentially. Currently, the virus has been detected on all continents except Antarctica.
The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhan Ghebreyesus, reported that about 3.4% of cases recorded in the world were fatal. At the same time, the WHO hopes to prevent the onset of a global epidemic. As you know, in 130 countries a deadly virus has not been detected. And on the territory of Mainland China, where the virus first appeared, cases of this disease are declining every day.
Unfortunately, the assessment of the risk of death is not completely accurate, since not all virus episodes are recorded. You know, patients with mild symptoms do not see a doctor and it’s our reality. This is what makes it impossible to see a complete map of the progression of coronavirus at the global level.
The danger of COVID-19 depends on various indicators. Studies have already proven that everyone has different chances to get sick! Many factors such as age, state of health, gender, level of development of the country and its health system, are key in checking the risk of infection.
The head of the Ministry of Health of Great Britain, Matt Hancock, called the coronavirus a “serious and inevitable” threat. This gave the government additional authority to combat the disease. The country has regulations that contain the maximum possible measures to prevent the epidemic of the virus.
The Ministry of Health of the UK considers the mortality rate of 2% the best sequence of events with the virus…
How to Determine the Mortality Rate
Not only ordinary mortals of all corners of the planet but also serious scientists puzzle over this fucking question. Research in this area is the level of PhDs of the top world institutions because counting all the cases in the world is not easy.
Well, statistics provide good information about the characteristics of the virus, but relying only on its results is not professional. The calculation of medical cases around the world is not an easy procedure since it requires optimization and universalization. A disease that has global epidemiological nature takes a lot of time to research everything. Unfortunately, there is not enough time resource, because every day people die from the coronavirus…
Therefore, most COVID-19 infections will remain countless! It’s extremely difficult to say that the different mortality rates announced in the media daily are associated with different variations of this virus.
According to a study by Imperial College London, different countries have varying degrees of recognition of hard and milder cases of the disease. That’s how the mild form of coronavirus included in the bbc statistics leads to an overestimation of the mortality rate.
Another drawback in bbc statistics which also leads to an error in the source data is associated with the time the infection progresses. When a person gets sick, he or she can both recover or die in the worst case. Entering the data in a summary, doctors do not know about the outcome of the disease of the patients. So, you can make an incorrect conclusion because you don’t know all the true information.
If doctors include all cases not yet been treated into coronavirus bbc statistics, there is a risk of underestimating the mortality rate in the future since each of the cases can end fatally later.
That’s why scientists have to combine separate data on each controversial issue. A detailed protocol will help to create a clear and error-free picture of the coronavirus disease.
Researchers observe cases and separate the mild course of the disease from the high risk of death. These are detailed studies that help to bring new information into the general picture of the coronavirus dynamics.
So, if we use data from the Chinese province of Hubei, where the deadly virus was detected for the first time and was characterized by massive infection, it would be statistically incorrect because the general indicators will stop to be real. The overall mortality rate, in this case, will increase too much!
A study like this helps scientists to show the range of coverage as well as the best assessment of its development. But it’s still impossible to find out the real universal mortality rate for coronavirus worldwide.
The Chances of Getting Sick from COVID-19
The truth is that it’s almost impossible to find out with one hundred percent probability about the risk of coronavirus for a certain population group.
But having examined the bbc statistics, you can understand the general trends of this disease and the group that is most at risk.
There are certain types of people for whom the form of COVID-19 can become fatal. So, elderly people, people with health problems and men are most at risk of getting sick (given the gender factor).
After the outbreak of coronavirus in China, the first global test analysis was made, in which about 44 thousand cases were reported. According to the test, mortality among the elderly was ten times higher than among middle-aged people. At the same time, the lowest death rates were among thirty-year-old citizens and people under 30. Statistics of this age showed only 8 deaths per 4500 cases of the disease.
Also, doctors see a particular threat to people with diabetes. These citizens have five times more chances of death from coronavirus than healthy people. The COVID-19 statistics also apply to people with the breath, blood pressure, and heart failure problems.
Coronavirus is more likely to affect men than women. So, a great number of deaths happen with the male half of the population. Scientists can’t say why it’s the way it is. Maybe it’s all about our nature.
All these individually taken indicators closely interact and even overlap. So, for example, a sick elderly man with respiratory problems has a greater chance of dying from the coronavirus than a young man who doesn’t have health problems.
How Location and Healthcare System Affect the Risk of Coronavirus
Men and women with similar indicators, but living in different countries or continents, have different chances to die from coronavirus. So, take for example men aged 70 years living in China, Europe, and Africa. Each patient has own medical history and progress in treatment, which is unlikely to coincide in different countries.
The reason for this difference is in various approaches to treatment, as well as in the level of therapy.
For example, an African who lives in a country with a low level of the economy, a lack of funds for necessary medical equipment, a vaccine, and other medicines, will be more difficult to recover than a resident of China. In Africa, in addition to scary coronavirus, there are many other risks, so the course of infection will be significantly troubled.
If we are talking about the coronavirus epidemic and pandemic, the presence of medical facilities and the number of necessary places in intensive care units will be one of the main criteria for success in combating the virus. In this case, a progressive and technically developed China has everything to fight coronavirus.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Chinese province of Hubei, the Wuhan city authorities built a new hospital in 10 days! It was organized following all the necessary conditions for isolation of people infected with coronavirus, taking into account the trends of modern medicine. These conditions make it possible to prevent the further spread of infection. Compared to the African continent, China is far more likely to prevent a deadly virus from spreading to the planet.
But the bbc statistics and technical capabilities are different for all continents, countries and individual regions, so it makes no sense to talk about some general trend or forecast.
Coronavirus or Flu: What is More Dangerous?
It’s difficult to compare the performance of these two viruses cause often people with mild manifestations of flu rarely go to the doctor. You know what I’m talking about.
Scientists don’t know how to provide reliable statistics on how many cases of SARS infection occur in a year. Outbreaks of flu continue to happen in the world every winter and kill hundreds of people.
It’s too early to talk about mortality from the new virus but some bbc statistics show that flu takes more people than coronavirus. But the infectiousness and spread rate of coronavirus infection are more dangerous than the flu.
How to Protect Yourself
The only way to protect yourself from infection is to follow the advice of WHO:
– wash your hands with soap;
– avoid coughing and sneezing people;
– do not touch your eyes, nose, and mouth.
Other recipes for protection against the coronavirus do not yet exist, so we can do only little things.
Every day the situation and bbc statistics are changing and I hope that it won’t turn into a fantastic movie about infected zombies.