Should Europe be Prepared for Absorpion?
Should Europe be prepared for absorption?
The Scramble For Europe
This is the name of the book by Stephen Smith which was published in 2018 and now becoming more noticeable in Europe after Angela Merkel the Chancellor of Germany admitted mistakes in the migration policy.
According to that book: today, 510 million people live inside EU borders and 1.25 billion people in Africa. In 2050, 450 million Europeans will face 2.5 billion Africans – 5 times their number.
Stephen Smith is one of the leading world experts on Africa. He is a former editor of the French daily newspaper Libération and the former deputy editor of the foreign desk at Le Monde. For many years he worked as a traveling correspondent for Radio France International and Reuters News Agency in West and Central Africa.
The main idea depicted in his book The Scramble for Europe is quite simple: “While Europe is going older and crumbling, Africa, on the other hand, is growing and getting younger – 40 percent of its population is under fifteen. Besides such a dramatic demographic shift, the continent is as well getting out of poverty. Therefore more people have enough financial resources for a trip to the Old World in search of a better future.
In 1930th the population of Africa was around 150 million people. The number was quite low as for the continent 6 times bigger than Europe. But, due to improved hygiene and medical help, the number grew up to 1.3 billion in 2018 and will be around 2.4 billion in 2050. The reason is, according to Smith, a really rapid change of generations – half of the population of the Black Continent reproduces its own kind, barely turning 18 or even less.
Smith believes that such “European Takeover” by Africans is not a bad thing. In his opinion, it will help to solve the problem of pension coverage for EU countries due to “fresh blood” from the Black Continent. It will result in creating more jobs, therefore, more pension fund contributions.
Looks promising. But…
As for creating new jobs – as known, jobs are being created regardless of how many people are in the labor exchange, but according to the needs of companies. Nowadays more and more jobs are being replaced by robots, machines, computers. So it is doubtful whether jobs will be created especially for unqualified and low-skilled immigrants. However, Smith believes that, for the most part, educated, skilled and financially secured people will emigrate to Europe.
“To travel to Europe, depending, of course, on the starting point from the south of the Sahara, you need at least 2,500 euros, which exceeds the average per capita income in many countries south of the Great Desert. It means that not the poorest, but the representatives of the emerging African middle class, the most educated, emigrate. With the exception of those countries that are in an existential crisis, such as Somalia or South Sudan, the majority of migrants come from Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa. In general, to move from Africa to Europe, you need only a diploma, money and a little bit of determination.”
Out of these three points, today’s African migrants have only the last one. The statement about the “emerging middle class” and “the possession of the necessary amount of funds” is just wishful thinking.
For many African countries, the GDP per capita is less than EUR 1000 per year. So, in order to send someone to Europe, the whole family saves money bit by bit for a long time. And then the “most perspective” representative of the family (or should we say “tribe”) leaves for Europe, not with the aim to develop European science, technology, culture, but to simply send home what he earned. Pretty cut and dry. And as soon as the immigrant receives legal status, he immediately applies for family reunification and drags everyone over. At the end of the day, for the state, it results in increasing of social contributions.
In that case, claiming that “new settlers” will earn enough to feed retirees means simply not to have a clue about the revenue and expense components of the state budget. The contributions to the pension fund will be lower than social contributions for non-working members of the family.
For example, France spends up to EUR 50.000 of maintenance costs per year per one minor refugee. And the number of Africans, who comes for studying in the universities is around 60 thousand people, who, after graduating, do not return home to raise the homeland’s economy, but prefer to settle in France. 90% of immigrants do not have any diploma and qualifications at all and coming over not for knowledge, but for the manna of heaven, called social benefits.
You can also find information, that out of all immigrants who entered Germany in 2015, only 5% are employed.
Draw your own conclusions.
According to “Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?? by UN, to tackle the problem of youth shortages, the EU needs to accept at least a million immigrants annually. Big Head economists are certain, that this will solve the problem of preserving the pension system. But have they considered, that such a powerful invasion of Africans will lead to the conflict of cultures in the first place and, as a result, to the disappearance of the European culture under the pressure of newcomers culture in general?
One of many historical precedents analyzed in The Scramble for Europe is Mexican immigration to the United States from 1975 to 2014: 12 million Mexicans with their children entered the United States, making a 30 million Mexican community, a little less 10% of the US population.
If Africa will reach the level of development comparable to Mexico in 1975, it should be expected that immigration to Europe will lead to 150-200 million Afro-Europeans in the next 30 years – as noted by Smith.
But these are just raw numbers and assumptions.
The main question is: what do Europeans think about it and how we feel about it in our everyday life?